Based on the current #coronavirus cases reported, Uganda could register about 2204 #covid19 cases by 20th April 2020, if more drastic measures are not implemented. Our projection is based on the current controls in place and assumes an average growth rate of cases if the government does not intervene more aggressively by implementing further restrictive measures especially catching up with the people who were infected and moved out of the quarantine.
Uganda will have more than 2204 cases by end of April 2020Our analysis is based on the data government is sharing with the public through the Ministry of Health, as well as by H. E. President Y. K. Museveni.
We are worried because people could be exposed considering the cases of the kind being reported by the Ministry of Health. Of the four Chinese that escaped surveillance and were caught crossing the border to DRC, two were infected increasing the exposure by a multitude which is why the cases will rise even faster. Also, we are concerned that a baby of 8 months could have been infected by the father without the mother being infected if she has one! The innocence of babies means many people tend to carry them innocently which increases the risk of viral infection exposure.
Our case threat modelling is to simulate a possible scenario for effective planning and crisis management. We are available to help the Ministry of Health with modelling and data analytics, to examine the possible virus threat trajectory based on facts at hand.
This case projection is not intended to create anxiety. On the contrary, it provides a clear picture of what could happen if the current reports are accurate and the government tightens on the crackdown of all possible cases since the projections increases as more new cases are registered.
As of today, statistical modelling show Uganda could register 2204 cases by 20th April 2020. It is our prayer that the problem is smaller than this, in which case the government must increase the threat alert to a higher level immediately to contain the spread. This could mean temporary shut-down of places of work to further deepen social distancing. Modelling like these help other countries to anticipate the scale of the problem and proactively put in place measures to contain it.
For updates, check this page. We shall keep updating the projects depending on the reported cases and exposure threats. We thank the Government for the measures taken thus far. We hope our projections are wrong.
Also, we pray for the quick recovery of the patients with #covid19. This pandemic will also come to an end. Stay safe. Follow the Ministry of Health Guidelines. And if you can, do not leave your home. That way, you frustrate the #covidvirus and stops its spread.
Copyright Mustapha B Mugisa, 2020. All rights reserved.
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